In 2024, about 5.8 billion LED light sources and lamps will gradually reach the limit of their service life and retire, which will bring considerable secondary replacement demand, which will help the LED lighting market reverse from the decline, driving the overall LED lighting demand to 13.4 billion.
In the normal use of lamps in 2023, the proportion of lamps with LED as the light source has reached about 70%, and the use of traditional lamps that can be replaced by LED is increasingly limited. Only some special requirements of the scene, there are other non-LED lighting fixtures, LED lighting replacement of non-LED lighting marginal cost continues to rise, a replacement process or has been completed. Although the shipment of LED lighting products in 2023 showed a decline, but the total amount did not decrease sharply, TrendForce consulting believes that the main is the secondary replacement demand has been replaced by a replacement demand, began to become the key momentum to support the LED lighting market.
2025~2028 LED lighting secondary replacement demand will peak
In general, the service life of leds is expected to be about 25,000 to 40,000 hours, compared with the actual use time of 7 to 10 years. According to TrendForce consulting research, LED lamps that began service from 2014 to 2016 have successively reached the life limit from 2023, driving the proportion of secondary replacement demand to rise year by year, and is expected to become the main driving force for the growth of the lighting market in the next five years. By 2025, the demand for secondary replacement will exceed the demand for primary replacement and new installation, becoming the key force in the LED lighting market; By 2028, about 78% of LED lighting demand will come from secondary replacement.
Overall, despite the huge demand for secondary replacement of LED lighting, the actual implementation is still difficult. First of all, home users lack of awareness of replacement, including the concept of health lighting and environmental awareness, and some users in demand have a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, some countries have insufficient understanding of light science literacy and common sense issues of light environment, and fail to fully realize the commercial value and artistic value brought by light technology. Finally, the market products are mixed, because consumers still take price as a priority, rather than product quality, the subsequent lighting market gradually entered a stable cyclical development stage, in order to attract consumers to buy again, the importance of the brand highlights.
Post time: Mar-26-2024